So far, the United States has discouraged Israel from going to war against Hezbollah largely by emphasizing the costs to Israel.
But one can safely assume that the administration does not want to take the rap for another humanitarian tragedy.
If the Biden administration fails to stop Israel from waging war on Hezbollah, it will come under political pressure to support Israel’s operations.
One hopes that Israel’s response to a pre-emptive “no” from Washington would be to shelve plans for an all-out offensive. It is possible that Mr. Netanyahu would mobilize supporters in Congress as well as the Trump campaign to hammer the administration and compel it to pledge support for whatever Israel chooses to do in Lebanon.
But there are risks for Israel, as well.
Should Israel decide to take on the administration now and Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, angry Democrats will complicate the U.S.-Israel relationship going forward.
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