France's Government Collapse Could Trigger Global Financial Storm

President Emmanuel Macron said he thinks the French government can survive a no-confidence vote on Wednesday, when the far-right party of Marine Le Pen is expected to join forces with a left-wing coalition to topple the administration.

The president’s remarks come a day before the National Assembly will hold the vote in Paris, which was triggered over a budget dispute.

Le Pen said this week that she’ll support any motion to bring down the government.

For the National Rally to support the no-confidence motion “would be a vote of unbearable cynicism,” Macron told reporters in Riyadh on Tuesday. “I can’t believe that they’d vote for the” leftist alliance’s motion.

Macron also said he wouldn’t resign his presidency before his term is up in 2027, something some opposition lawmakers have called for.

Prime Minister Michel Barnier used a constitutional mechanism on Monday to force through an unpopular budget bill, leading the National Rally and the leftist coalition to call for the votes of no confidence.

If the government were to collapse on Wednesday, it would underscore the power acquired by Le Pen since Macron called a surprise election in June. It would also mark the shortest tenure for a premier since France’s Fifth Republic was founded in 1958.

The political chaos has driven bond investors to punish France’s sovereign debt relative to its peers, pushing borrowing costs at one point last week to match Greece’s and leading Barnier to warn of a “storm” in financial markets if he is dismissed from power.

Government collapse so close to the end-year budget deadline would take France into unchartered territory.

The outgoing government, acting in a caretaker capacity, could use emergency laws to collect taxes and guarantee a minimal level of spending, but the economic and financial impact is hard to predict.

The current finance minister, Antoine Armand, warned earlier Tuesday that stopgap legislation would raise taxes for millions of households and block planned spending increases for some priorities, including security and farming.