Tehran’s attacks on Pakistani, Iraqi and Syrian territory have only one thing in common, say analysts: a show of strength at a time Iran feels especially threatened.
Then on Tuesday, Iran fired missiles into Pakistan’s Balochistan province. Their target was the separatist group Jaish al-Adl but at least two children were killed. Pakistan launched retaliatory attacks on Thursday morning, killing at least nine people in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, just across the border.
These rapid attacks by Iran on three different neighbours have sparked concerns of a regional escalation and triggered questions over the timings of Tehran’s decision to launch cross-border strikes, given Israel’s continuing war on Gaza.
On the surface, the alleged targets of Iranian attacks in Syria, Iraq and Pakistan appear to have little in common. But there’s a common thread tying Tehran’s actions – even though the strike on Pakistan may have been a reckless and ill-considered gamble – say analysts.
“It has to do, I think, with Iran’s overall threat perception in the region rising. And at the same time, feeling the need – as a result of domestic and external pressure – to respond,” said Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at SWP Berlin.
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